What 2020’s Election Data Says About 2024.
“4 more years!”
The dashing words once written for the screen was in furious display over the past week. Voters, the voters, they scrambled to voting stations. Over the course of months, they would wait in line, in the brittle cold, in the brutality of a pandemic, who’s sheer confidence in alleviating the virus soothed the anxieties of his base. They garnered in crowds, massive crowds, to cheer the president of the United States along as he rallied across the country. Voters, they were no ordinary voters. They embodied the idealistic spirit of the American voter - one that had such unshakeable loyalty in their candidate of choice, as though they were family. They brought the man to victory, victory twice, shocked the nation, nation twice. Their cheers embodied the legacy of his presidency. No ordinary voters indeed- they were and are the base that championed Donald Trump to the RNC, then to the presidency.
If Donald Trump’s presidency was a political anomaly to be studied, his path to the presidency a narrative to be told, then his supporters became the political elixir any candidate would have dreamed to have. If there was any president in recent history who’s base delivered to him, full autonomy, it was the base of Donald Trump.
In 2020, the brand of Donald Trump was what brought to him the presidency, kept him the presidency, and eventually, lost him the presidency. His polarizing figure brought to him a side of fierce loyalty- and fierce opposition.
However, contrary to popular belief, Donald Trump wasn’t defeated by the Democratic Party. He was defeated by a coalition. Ok- for the sake of this article, the Democratic Coalition.
Classical Conservatives, Centrists, Liberals, and Progressives all gathered against Trump, consisting of broad echo’s of resounding refusal, of the 45th president of the United States of America, projected to lose by the exact same score he once won by, at 306–216. (WUSA9, 2020)
A large part of America sighed in relief, whilst another in grief. The battle for 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue has yet to be given up- as Trump still has refused to concede an election that makes it impossible for him to win unless there was to be a level of voter fraud that would immediately put this country in a state of emergency. So far, there is no sign of anything like that occurring to such a scale. In the near future, that doesn’t so any sign of changing; 5 of the President’s lawsuits were rejected, 1 settled, 3 ongoing litigation, and 1 in their favor. Recounts don’t appear to be in the president’s favor either, and the litigation in question is increasingly less and less likely- from an already unlikely result, to turn out in the president’s favor. (Time, 2020)*
While the national election isn’t legitimately over, the results are more than moderately conclusive. In pursuing litigation, recounts, and blaming Democrats for stealing the election, Trump himself would have to assume the standing results are, very much so as conclusive as previously stated. Donald Trump was defeated by the Democratic Coalition.
But his defeat in 2020 can tell us a lot about 2024- because while Trump lost the presidency, the GOP’s victories on election night were not insignificant; and they can tell us where the party- where both parties may be heading, going into the next 4 years.
The first, and foremost victory going into 2024 the GOP carries was that the Trump hypothesis they carried was correct; A loyal and active voter base can be the winning asset of a party.
For the party that just lost the presidency, that might seem like an odd insight to take- but a quick run of the numbers can say otherwise. 71 million Americans showed up to re-elect him. In 2016, the number to elect him was 64 million. (NYT, 2020) (Al,2017)
Now, that’s not to isolate the Democratic turnout in 2020- which was one of the few contributors that formed them a rocket to victory; but the difference that the GOP had was the concentration level of these votes. The GOP had to lead with what Donald Trump had accomplished, and the pitch they gave was not one that was intently moderate- it was the polarizing language of Trump, a language that’s keen on being divisive when it comes to filtering through voters. However, based on his governance, they could have pitched him closer to the center than what meets the eye. Would he still be prominently right-wing? Yes. But his legislation was not void of liberalism, with formidable potential for more centrist catering. What his actions brought furthest to light were, in fact, consisting of either his character or right-wing. (140reasons, 2020). This would bring in and concentrate his voter base, meaning they are more united in the candidate they are voting for, with less overall ideological spread.
This growth in voter loyalty spoke that story- that a very, very prominent chunk of US voters loved Donald Trump, and that base- for a specific candidate, was both large, and growing at the same time. The energy that is needed for his base to turn out and grow for him during the time of re-election is not nearly as much as that of his opponent, which had to make a coalition with virtually every other major side- to beat him. Donald Trump’s base isn’t just large- it’s a sustainable one. His voters are the voters of a candidate’s dreams- loyal, turning out, and campaigning for him, without needing an equivalent level of political organization.
Not only does this give him a lot of autonomy, going into 2024, but it’s also going to be giving him a lot of sway. While there are signs pointing to a 2024 run, it will also be somewhat harder. Given his defeat as an incumbent, facings of possible litigation, and the other opportunities available, the GOP will be looking at another possible strategic move.
See, even though Trump might not be running, there is no question that his base has the capacity to keep the party. As a result, a “Trump-extension’ candidate will likely be the go-to, those being high-profile Republicans who were loyal to Trump, or brought his name up, who will see their name slingshot upward within the party through the Trump families assistance and rigorous campaigning that will make them seem as though they will carry the Trump-era Republican party forward, or a Trump family member themselves. The party will have to make room for both.
However, as this happens, the GOP won’t actually be able to hold onto the essence of the Trump base, the way Trump did. Trump lost the election he once won, for the same reason. He was Donald Trump- a message that never betrayed his voters. The next candidate will be a lot less vulnerable to ad-hom’s. They’ll have to carry a different type of brand with them.
See, in order for the GOP to maintain itself, it’s going to have to dismantle the Democratic Coalition- which is far stronger than the Democratic Party.
The reason why is because of electoral advantage: The California effect (Californians leaving to other southern states- bringing left-leaning politics with them), the influx of city explosion in the sun-belt, and greater diversification)), mean that the GOP is losing the states that gave it the ability to win the election in the first place. States like Nevada and New Mexico are now becoming that are becoming bluer. 2020 took Arizona plus Georgia, and with the Texas election being as close as it was- with the rapid growth of its cities, it’s becoming more and more of a purple state to go blue.(WSU9, 2020)
But, this brings us to the second GOP win of the night: Minorities.
The GOP, and Trump, took a great increase in minorities over this year, with CNN exit polls showing a 41%-55% split in the vote for Trump, 41% being minorities. Historically, Trump’s showing with minorities gave an indication that the voting patterns have the potential to increasingly blur lines, offsetting the demographical effect that the electoral advantage may one day deliver. (CNN,2020)
This puts up for question the need for the GOP to not only run a candidate that might have to work with the Trump base but one that can bring in moderates as well. What this means is that the party will, in fact, have to change a substantial part of its platform. A likely direction will be that of looking towards the conservative ends of the minorities that go blue due to a more inclusive pitch (but could go red based on the economic standards, which was a huge part of Trump’s minority pitch in 2020).
What could this mean? It means that the party may have to spend more time taking part in the conversation of immigration, culture, religion, and job outlook, looking at where the conservative minorities stand and moving to the left of that direction, and finding more distinctive ways to separate them from the left. A 2024 conservative pitch, for example, greatly loosening asylum restrictions on religious minorities seeking asylum. More fundamentally, this would have to entail those from the east, them having the most conservative turnout compared to all other minorities. This lean, statistically, would be able to further blur the lines of voting demographics.
Speaking of blurring the line, there comes a third part- one that the GOP, with more of a “refined” strategy, per say, will be breaking apart the Democratic Coalition. Once again, as per CNN exit polls, 53% of people who voted for Trump voted-for Trump. Nearly 68% of Democrat voters voted against him, not for Biden. (CNN,2020) The coalition of conservatives, moderates, liberals, and progressives, mean that ideologically, the Democratic Coalition is a defensive one- to keep a more ideologically off-center Republican party, from the government. However, this also means, internally, the coalition will disagree and be far less concentrated- on economics, climate, and social policy.
To break this down, if it can retain both advantages it already has, the GOP needs to win back the center. The coalition can be an anomaly, and the GOP would have to all but seduce the center, in a larger fashion, towards expanding their centrist faction. Concentrated within the “IDW” and right-wing media, placing a priority on the diversity of thought would reform a more diverse conservative platform that isn’t as heavily built on a coalition so much as it is on consistency and moving to a new direction in politics controlled by the diversity of thought over populistic demand, and instead, using that wing as a mechanism to keep the party moving.
Does that mean the GOP moves to the left? Probably. Not as a leftist party- but closer to the center than where it is now. But that’s the GOP, that from its data in 2020, can see that it can head into.
Of course, a “Trump Extention” candidate all but sounds like an antonym to that, but breaking down the Trump outreach, it follows a couple of major patterns.
#1: Extreme Confidence. What Trump built to his followers was an image of security to the fear that they have been forgotten, that their voice is not being heard. That was the center of the campaign, not the policies following it. His Extention candidate would still have to make this a priority.
#2: Flaghshipping big ideas: This does not need to be held to a right-wing standard. UBI, and Andrew Yang, for example, cleared a similar effect.
#3: Vilifying. Trump didn’t just position himself as an anti-democrat. He made them look like a villain, where he would be the weapon to disarm them- and the audience, they are the hero. It’s story branding, done in politics. It’s important to remember that at one point, Trump was a Democrat.
Donald Trump’s character was a powerful one, but it was those 3 components that made him heard and cater to a base that, whether or not the left wants to acknowledge the righteousness of being empathetic towards, was worried about losing their jobs. Living in rural, forgotten areas.
To those who feel forgotten, a flashing light coming forth is a light that breathes the necessity that the moths see come night- and to those, to those, the proclamation of their existence- their world, and their experiences, is what decides their ballot.
That’s the conservative end of what needs to be done, but it’s important to remember some key takeaways from the Democratic turnout as well.
#1: Voting patterns are sticking. As we saw in 2020, the voter behaviors fell heavily in line with ideology, with mail-ins coming from Democrats far more than Republicans- with nearly 3 times as much mail-in-voting records as Republicans. The echo of this language will be crucial in measuring elections. (Politico, 2020)
#2: The vote of overconfidence. This is pretty simple: the polls were wrong. The results of polls aren’t as trustworthy, but it’s also important to recognize what was found: partisan patterns. Local placement voting tests, which can record voter partisan patterns (such as voting by mail preference). Knowing which districts- and what about them, are swinging voters one way or another, and using those factors to measure margins of error that would then be recalculated into polling averages, as well as an estimate of turnout and moderate split. How these polls are now done, needs a massive overhaul. Or they need to be ignored completely- because when Democrats trust the polls, for 2 years in a row- an eccentric candidate can beat the odds. If it’s more about the candidate, the numbers need to reflect that.
#3: Losing swing. The Democrats show a chance of swinging Michigan into the territory of Illinois. But they lost Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, all 3 of which are swinging states that are increasingly looking more red. The focus then has turned into turning red states blue, which is ambitious- but also means that swing states could keep diving into the red, eventually coming into cities that they otherwise depend on to swing the state, as well as states that swing blue, but not always, reversing the effect they have. The pitch they need to make to rural and midwestern voters needs to be an empathetic tone. If they don’t feel heard, parts of the midwest and south may eventually change places.
#4: Safety in cities. The Democrats need to look at why the sun-belt is booming, and keep it that way. Cities like Austin, Atlanta, Denver, and so on push the states blue- but while these states were historically more conservative and independent, so were the economies. Democrats may well need to look into abandoning talking about making taxes higher in those states, as they begin to creep into the price and focus more on the effects of wealth distribution- like the VAT, Negative Income Tax, childhood investment plans, and education. If Democrats can position themselves as the party that talks more about the economy, run experiments, and has a diversity of thought based on placement- it can retain and focus on the sun-belt growth it needs to retain its advantage. (Harvard, 2007)
#5 Winning the moderates. The GOP lost the moderates from its polarizing character, and the Democrats need to be able to make a moderate sell to an increasingly more progressive agenda. If it sticks to its more classic roots, it’s going to be harder to do from a more diverse Republican Party that maintains the characteristics mentioned above- since character evidence is not an object when it comes to debate- and what didn’t work will be brought up to shift the character of the party. From 2016, the party knows that isolating the progressive vote could seriously damage both the activity the party needs to rival an energetic Trump base and lose turnout. But in 2020, 64% of the moderate vote, and 14% of the conservative vote went to them- closing into an 84–80% split. This significantly damages the party in its decision making in the long run, and the earlier it’s addressed the safer the party will be. (CNN,2020)
#6: A united vision. Nearly 75 million people cast their vote for Joe Biden. (AS,2020) This means, turnout- from the moderate and progressive end, made a great deal in making this decision happen. The Democratic Coalition is what won the election, and slowly., as conflicts arise, it will disband so long as it doesn’t see an issue on the right. The way the party prevents this from happening is disheveling the playing field, and focusing on re-platforming the party towards issues that can speak to moderates, progressives, conservatives, and liberals alike: by focusing on solutions to the problems that drive voters forward. Campaigning on platforms like UBI- and going on conservative talk shows, to speak to those who could see the best benefit on them, or talking about education reform with GOP senators, and pushing change in that direction, and creating a new slate of issues that will be flag shipped by the party allows it to step first into a new debate against a more diverse Republican Party. That’s not to leave the old issues behind- but rather to include them as parts of newer issues and questions- and looking at other solutions beyond the partisan realm. As republicans grow in the diversity of thought, Democrats can grow in the diversity of solution- and use that to compete and retain moderate, progressive, and potentially even conservative support throughout 2024.
At the end of the day, there’s a new theme for these parties going into the next decade of politics. The base that brought up Donald Trump told us a lot about what 2024 could look like: a race towards a new age of politics, in an age congested with division, the penmanship struck against one as much as for one, an electoral map as blurry as aged alphabet soup, but more than anything else: a race to see which party forms it’s new identity first, and what identity that party just may well be. Parties that embody that idealistic spirit of the American voter- a voter who speaks for the nation. Not for a candidate, not for a line of issues, but one that reflects the state of the nation a much as it reflects who the next commander-in-chief of 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue will be.
*As of the writing (not publishing of the article). Updated information is available in the sources, and based on the current data, does not alter or affect the argument taken at hand.
Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-05/trump-election-lawsuits-filed-state-by-state
